Investment market momentum is still firmly positive across Central and Eastern Europe but an increasing share of market players feel that commercial property has become expensive in the countries surveyed by the RICS Commercial Property Monitor. Although the majority of the survey’s contributors believe that the market is in the peak phase of the property cycle, growth is set to continue in the coming year.

Money from East Asia burst on to the CEE scene in 2016-17, mainly via large industrial sector portfolio deals. The industrial sector received the majority of 2018’s flow as well, though diversification via larger single asset deals is beginning to occur. Asian investors appear to need liquidity: looking by CEE-6 destination, Poland presently dominates.

There is a growing global war chest of capital for real estate, with institutional investors looking to increase their real estate allocations and new sources of capital emerging, according to Colliers International’s latest report. Increasing allocations to real estate from global institutions reached at least $840 billion in 2018, adding to the $370 billion in closed-end funds waiting to be deployed to real estate in 2019.

The local real estate market has begun to attract the attention of major Asian investors, as groups from China and South Korea are exploring the potential to invest directly in the primary commercial markets. It is feasible that the first transaction could occur by the end of this year, according to Cushman & Wakefield Echinox consultants.

At the end of 2018, Poland’s industrial and warehouse stock reached 15.79 million sqm. Around 2.22 million sqm of modern warehouse and industrial space was delivered to the market last year, down by just 6% on 2017’s level. With 792,000 sqm constructed in the last 12 months, Central Poland reported a record-high development activity with large-scale completions for BSH, Media Expert and Smyk at Panattoni Central European Logistics Hub in Łódź (a total of 214,000 sqm), Hillwood BTS Zalando 1 in Głuchów (125,000 sqm) and Panattoni Park Stryków III (91,000 sqm). Other leading markets in terms of new supply were Upper Silesia (303,000 sqm), Wrocław (219,000) and Warsaw suburbs (205,000 sqm).

At the end of 2018, Poznań’s total office stock amounted to 479,100 sqm. Six projects completed in the last twelve months delivered 21,200 sqm of new office space. The largest completions included buildings IV and V of the Pixel complex: 8,850 and 8,950 sqm, respectively. Office take-up hit 70,400 sqm, which represented a 10% y/y decrease. Key lease transactions comprised the 14,750 sqm renegotiation and expansion by Santander Bank Polska at Poznań Business Garden, a deal signed for 10,300 sqm at a Nowy Rynek building and Carlsberg’s 3,950 sqm renegotiation at Nowe Garbary. Cushman & Wakefield summarised the Poznań office market at year-end 2018.

According to Antony Slumbers, one of the keynote speakers of Budapest PropTech Forum 2019, the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) is probably larger than that of electricity or the steam engine. In the world of real estate, AI can make the design, construction, management, lease and sale of buildings much more efficient.

M7 Real Estate has completed €75 million of disposals across Central Europe in 2018 on behalf of both in house funds and third party mandates. M7 maintained Assets Under Management in Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland at €285 million, with a portfolio comprising 375,000 sqm of multi-let office and industrial space. In addition, M7 completed circa 50 leasing events, including new leases and lease re-gears.

In 2018, Poland joined the group of 25 most developed economies in the world. In this context, last year’s data from the warehouse and industrial market are a confirmation that Poland fully deserved its upgrade, says Tom Listowski, Partner, Head of Industrial & Warehouse, CEE at Cresa, in the firm’s latest report

At the end of 2018, the total office stock of Katowice, Poland’s fifth largest office market, stood at 519,300 sqm. Last year’s new supply amounted to 50,800 sqm (+218% y/y) delivered across ten office projects, the biggest completions being .KTW (18,200 sqm), Silesia Business Park IV (10,700 sqm) and GPP Business Park IV – Bloch (7,500 sqm). Another 52,000 sqm of office space is expected to be constructed at seven new office schemes in the coming 12 months, according to Cushman & Wakefield.