In 2022, the industrial market remained one of the fastest-growing real estate sectors in Poland despite supply chain disruptions that sent rents and construction costs rising. 2023 is shaping up to be a year of buzzwords such as nearshoring, reshoring and friendshoring, with the biggest challenges being cost optimization and looking for savings, says Jakub Kurek, Head of Industrial and Warehouse at Newmark Polska.

Taking into account the mood and current investment activity, it would seem that the recession in global markets is only just developing. A clear slowdown in real estate transactions has been visible since mid-2022. Several factors contributed to it, including the increase in interest rates, uncertainty related to the geopolitical situation, the war in Ukraine, games between the USA, Taiwan and China, as well as the instability of government and economy in Great Britain and economic problems in China, claims Michał Ćwikliński, Principal, Managing Director – Poland at Avison Young. 

NEPI Rockcastle, through its subsidiary, has acquired all the issued shares in the Forum Gdańsk shopping centre from a company ultimately owned by Blackstone-managed funds. The transaction encompassed the repayment of all the asset’s outstanding debt. Forum Gdańsk is a 63,500 sqm GLA shopping centre, situated in Gdańsk, the sixth largest city in Poland by population, with over 470,000 inhabitants.

Berlin-based property developer firm Bauwert AG is entering a strategic partnership with Hungary’s Wing Group, as well as international investment & asset manager Griffin Capital Partners. For this purpose, the three companies signed an agreement under which Wing and Griffin will together acquire 60% of Bauwert’s shares. The remaining 40% will be kept in the ownership of the existing shareholders. Wing Group will have a controlling interest in the company.

LivUp has finalized the purchase of a property in Kraków from Galinvest. The new LivUp project will include about 80 residential apartments for long-term rental, as well as additional amenities and facilities. The first tenants are expected to move in by Q2 2023.

Panattoni proceeds with another development for Flex, a global supplier of equipment and technology. The lease agreement covered a total of 28,000 sqm at Panattoni Park Łódź A1, where the company will occupy both warehouse and office space. 

In 2023, offices in Poland will be more expensive, and their availability in the top locations of the largest cities will be lower, says Mateusz Strzelecki, Partner, Head of Tenant Representation at Walter Herz.

Trei Real Estate just opened another retail park of its Vendo Park brand in Poland. It is located in Mielec, a small town of around 61,000 residents in the Podkarpackie or Subcarpathian voivodeship in south-eastern Poland. The new Vendo Park has a lettable area of around 7,000 square meters and is occupied by twelve retailers and a supermarket. On the whole, Trei invested c. €11.9 million in the property. As a result, the Vendo Park portfolio of Trei has just increased to a total of 42 retail parks, 32 of which are located in Poland while the others are in the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

From the warehouse developers' perspective, 2023 will be marked by very well-thought-out purchases. With the costs of financing constantly rising, construction costs changing, and investors pressing for discounts on the existing warehouse market, the land market will be the first to feel this accumulated pressure, says Bartłomiej Krzyżak, Senior Director, Investment at Avison Young.

High energy prices and rising inflation are affecting market conditions across Europe. According to economists' forecasts, the most difficult period will be the coming winter. However, Poland is in a more favourable situation despite rising inflationary pressures, as JLL experts argue in their latest report on the retail market in Poland for Q3 2022. According to Oxford Economics, Poland's GDP will grow by an average of 3.0% per year between 2022 and 2026, well above the average for the EU as a whole and the eurozone (1.8%). In addition, Poland is projected to see the greatest increase in retail spending until 2026. Oxford Economics also reports that retail sales, in real value terms, are expected to grow by 4.6% per annum until 2026, placing Poland among the top European countries.