Croatia’s remarkable recovery from the brutal impact that the COVID-19 epidemic had on the country in 2020 is, like its construction boom, both real and smoke and mirrors, both temporary and long-term, according to Michael Glazer (SEE Regional Advisors) and Tatjana Halapija (Nada Projekt), the Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association’s members in Croatia.

In the first year of the pandemic, the construction market of the SEE region as a whole remained in the positive, and further expansion is expected until 2023. The only exception is Bulgaria where a harsh transition is foreseen for 2023 when the 2014-2020 EU programming period ends financially. The massive growth experienced in the years before 2020 is not anticipated to return. around 3% growth is projected for 2021 and 2022, and a 3% drop for 2023. The countries with the largest cumulated growth on the forecast horizon are Croatia and Serbia, according to the Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association’s 2021 Summer Construction Forecast Report.

During the last six years, between 2015 and 2020, the Serbian construction industry rolled out into one of the strongest growth cycles in recent history. The powerful surge in construction outputs surpassed all initial expectations, and there are a number of converging factors behind its formidable result. The recovery after the recession gradually transformed itself into a fully-fledged construction boom, which more than doubled Serbia’s construction output, from €2 billion in 2015 to €4 billion in 2019. Even the pandemic in 2020 didn’t change the very positive outlook, although it did cause a slowdown and negative consolidation of construction outputs by some 5% at constant prices. The expected growth should return in 2021, however. The EECFA (Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association) has released its latest article about the Serbian construction industry, written by Dejan Krajinović, Beobuild Core D.O.O.

The longer-term trend of price increases on the residential market continues to be the most likely scenario as demand continues to outpace supply in many of the larger cities of Romania, according to a report by the Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association.

Building construction markets of the Balkan EECFA countries as a whole have shown resistance during the pandemic so far. Nonetheless, the region is foreseen to have yet another negative year in 2021, before expansion can return in 2022. The EECFA (Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association) has released its Construction Forecast Report for winter 2020.

It’s at last becoming possible to assess the consequences for Croatia’s construction sector of the country’s July 2020 elections. Jockeying for governmental positions, COVID-19- and tourism-season-related priorities and other pressing matters prevented the new Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) led government from moving on its larger agenda until recently. Now, though, the political picture, and the impact of the elections on Croatia’s construction sector, is getting clearer, according to a report by the Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association.

The construction sector in Bulgaria, and building construction in particular, was not affected as hard as others by the COVID-19 crisis, according to a report by the Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association.

The construction industry in most of Southeastern Europe will be bruised by the pandemic effects this year, causing a drop in construction outputs. The two exceptions are Croatia and Bulgaria where civil engineering could compensate for the losses elsewhere. Already in 2021, we are likely to see positive growth rates in all 5 countries, according to the Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association

In the Serbian economy, the construction industry has been one of the sectors least affected by COVID-19, with only smaller decrease recorded in production volumes and logistical capacity. The Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association has published a COVID-19 update on the construction sector of Serbia.

COVID-19’s direct impact on ongoing construction activity in Romania has been minimal since no restrictions were in place specifically targeting construction works. Several indirect factors, however, are expected to limit the amount of construction activity. The Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association has published a COVID-19 update on the construction sector of Romania.