At the end of the first half of 2024, the investment market rebounded, reaching a transaction volume of €1.8 billion, which is double the year-over-year value. In the office market, several transactions finally appeared in regional cities, and in the retail sector, the largest transaction since Q1 2022 was finalized. The warehouse sector, on the other hand, is still waiting for large transactions. Hotels are enjoying increased popularity, and in the residential segment, 5 transactions were closed in Warsaw, says Avison Young.

Cushman & Wakefield has summarised the situation on the Polish retail market in the second quarter of 2024. There were eight new retail completions with the development pipeline comprising approximately 400,000 sqm. This indicates healthy supply levels amid unwavering occupier demand and strong retail sales, shopping centre footfall and turnover figures.

We are approaching the halfway point of 2024. Before the semi-annual investment market reports are released, Avison Young is sharing the current insights on the Polish investment market. 

Poland's industrial market remains steady and adapts its growth rate to the macroeconomic conditions in both the local and European markets. The gross take-up statistics, which stood at 870,000 sqm at the end of Q1 2024, demonstrated the restricted growth of businesses in the industrial and logistics sectors. Developers supplied about 850,000 sqm between January and March 2024, which prompted Axi Immo analysts to report a slight increase in vacancy rates to 8.2%. The industrial sector has more than 32.7 million sqm of total stock. Nonetheless, a further 2.3 million sqm are still being built.

In 2024, the total investment volume in Poland amounted to €364 million, marking the weakest result for the first quarter in recent years. Interestingly, 25% of the invested capital comes from Polish investors. The warehouse sector remains the leader, accounting for 38% of the total investment volume. Unchanged, the vast majority of office transactions took place in Warsaw, while commercial investments were dominated by retail parks. Additionally, the market also saw two transactions in the residential sector in Warsaw, and two hotels were sold in seaside tourist cities, says Paulina Brzeszkiewicz-Kuczyńska, Research and Data Manager at Avison Young.

The 4-day workweek is becoming an increasingly hot topic. Although in Poland it still appears to be a thing of the future, recent years have shown how quickly labour market trends are changing. AI is also broadly expected to have a significant effect on the workplace. BNP Paribas Real Estate experts are wondering, how will all of this impact the commercial real estate market.

Cushman & Wakefield has summarised the situation on the Polish retail market. The opening of 2024 is encouraging and new retail space supply in the coming months is likely to match or even surpass last year’s total. The Polish market continues to attract interest from new brands, borne out by several debuts. More arrivals are expected to follow amid improving retail sales, rising shopping centre footfall and turnover levels as inflation is weakening.

According to the latest report by Newmark Polska, 2023 was one of the best years in the market’s history. It saw the second-highest new supply (3.7 million sqm) and the third-highest take-up (5.6 million sqm) and development pipeline (2.8 million sqm). Considerable warehouse availability levels brought a long-awaited stabilization of rental rates.

Demand for offices in Poland remains high, but there is the least amount of space under construction in over a dozen years. The office real estate market is changing more and more, says Walter Herz. 

According to experts from BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland, Poland’s economic outlook remains stable but the global geopolitical situation and high interest rates across Europe continue to hamper a quick rebound in commercial property trading and large-scale transactions. Last year’s results confirmed a fall in liquidity for the CRE sector in Poland.