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According to experts from BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland, Poland’s economic outlook remains stable but the global geopolitical situation and high interest rates across Europe continue to hamper a quick rebound in commercial property trading and large-scale transactions. Last year’s results confirmed a fall in liquidity for the CRE sector in Poland.

Experts of Cushman & Wakefield expect transactional activity on the Polish hotel market to pick up in 2024 as key performance indicators continue to improve and the pressure on investors to allocate capital builds up. Although 2023’s total investment volume on the Polish market was below that of 2019, it reached nearly €83 million - an 82% increase year-on-year. Warsaw, Vilnius and Edinburg are the only main European hotel markets that reported year-on-year growth in occupancy levels last year. At the same time, Warsaw came third for ADR growth (EUR) in 2023, with an increase of 20.1% year-on-year. 

Following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020, the Polish investment market has consistently navigated its repercussions, only to face additional challenges from the economic turbulence resulting from the war in Ukraine, rising interest rates or inflation. Despite maintaining stable investment volumes for three tough years, 2023 witnessed an inevitable slowdown, says Avison Young.

Cushman & Wakefield has summarized the situation in the Polish retail market in 2023, which saw heightened development activity, with about 450,000 sqm of new retail space delivered. The Polish retail sector continued to recover, as confirmed by the number of debuts – 29 new brands entered Poland in the last 12 months, marking the highest figure since 2017. Meanwhile, the slower price growth bolstered consumer sentiment, leading to higher retail turnover levels.

Despite significant headwinds across the global economy, the European flexible office market has remained largely resilient throughout 2023, says Workthere.pl. In 2024, the flexible office specialist expects operators to continue to seek best-in-class spaces with a greater focus on amenities and sustainability offerings.

Uncertainty and volatility have been the two dominant trends shaping the commercial real estate market and buyer sentiment in recent months. However, according to the latest report from Cushman & Wakefield, the Polish market, whose fundamentals remain strong, is broadly expected to regain equilibrium. Change is being seen in the number and types of real estate transactions taking place – due to the constrained availability of safe prime assets for sale on the office market and high financing costs, investors seeking higher returns are turning their focus to higher-risk transactions. With retail footfall figures for large schemes back at satisfactory levels after the pandemic and attractive asset pricing, the retail market has become an interesting sector for bargain hunting. The warehouse and logistics sector continues to feature prominently on investors’ radars.

Poland’s industrial sector slowed in 2023, but the market hopes to rebound in 2024. After the peak of take-up and supply in the so-called COVID period falling in 2020-2022, the logistics and manufacturing market has returned in many values to those observed in 2018-2019, says Axi Immo. 

2023 was marked in Poland by a shrinking office development pipeline amid a continued focus on the optimisation of office footprints and overall office running costs. It was also another year in which both tenants and developers faced relatively high office fit-out costs. In addition, high borrowing costs were a drag on expansion, with caution being a key theme characterising the Polish office market, says Newmark.

The decline in investment volume, which has been recorded this year in all sectors of the commercial real estate market in Poland, is particularly visible in the office segment. Despite the relative recovery that was observed at the end of the summer, the total value of the transaction volume recorded in Q1-Q3 2023, amounted to only ca. €1.7 billion, with merely ca. €267 million allocated in office assets. However, in this time of slowdown, there is also room for success. Avison Young's investment team can boast of approximately one-third of completed transactions in this sector - both in terms of volume and number of transactions.

Investors in Poland are looking for market opportunities and value-add assets. Companies are optimizing their portfolios by putting up for sale properties that do not fit their new investment strategies, says Walter Herz.