Cushman & Wakefield has released a summary of retail market conditions in Poland. Approximately 200,000 sqm is likely to be added to the market by the end of this year. Most of that total will be delivered in retail parks that account for 77% of the development pipeline, which will be consistent with the trend seen in recent years. Rental rates are on an upward year-on-year trajectory while the average vacancy rate in the largest Polish cities has dipped by 1.2 pp year-on-year. 

During the first half of 2023, investment activity remained low due to increased financial costs and an uncertain outlook. As a result, there was a need for more price discovery across all sectors. In Poland, we are witnessing a similar tendency in European countries and the United States, and one of these trends is a reduction in investment volume. The rise in interest rates had a significant impact on transaction valuations and investment activity, leading to a challenge in determining the size, speed, and duration of price adjustments. JLL experts presented an analysis of investors' activity in Poland in comparison to CEE countries.

Just ahead of the Expo Real investment fair in Munich, experts of Avison Young presented an overview of the current situation in the Polish commercial real estate market. 

In 2022, the value of transactions on the Polish commercial real estate market amounted to approximately € 5.8 billion, which showed that after the difficult years of the pandemic and the outbreak of conflict in the East, Poland turned out to be a stable market with a large group of investors interested in investing capital in our country and a wide range of attractive investment products. However, in the first half of 2023, we witnessed the previously expected investment slowdown. After six months of  2023, the total investment volume amounted to only around €800 million, which means a decrease of 70 per cent compared to the same period a year earlier, says Bartłomiej Zagrodnik, CEO of Walter Herz advisory agency.

Older buildings are making way for new ones, and the trend of redeveloping plots in the centres of large cities in Poland is intensifying. Furthermore, the plans include not only new development projects that arise after demolitions but also transforming existing office buildings into residential projects, including those in PRS (Private Rented Sector) formula, says Avison Young Polska. 

This year, we can observe a decrease in investor activity in the commercial real estate sector throughout Europe. The value of the investment volume in the first quarter of 2023 decreased in Poland by over 60 per cent year-on-year, and in some Western European markets by as much as 90 per cent. The Polish market boasts higher rates of return than those offered by Western Europe and still compares favourably with European markets. According to Walter Herz, investors are looking for opportunities in the Polish commercial real estate market.

Rent and maintenance charges are rising, lease periods are being prolonged, and contracts are subject to higher and higher annual indexation of rates. Nevertheless, offices in all markets in Poland still enjoy record-high popularity

Healthy occupier demand combined with high development activity have in recent years resulted in an increased appetite for investment land for industrial and logistics properties in Poland. Plot prices have risen as a result in the most attractive locations. Suitable, well-located greenfield land has become scarce, which has turned developers’ attention to brownfield plots. The COVID-19 pandemic has not had a material impact on the demand-supply balance in the land market, according to AXI IMMO.