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In 2024, the total investment volume in Poland amounted to €364 million, marking the weakest result for the first quarter in recent years. Interestingly, 25% of the invested capital comes from Polish investors. The warehouse sector remains the leader, accounting for 38% of the total investment volume. Unchanged, the vast majority of office transactions took place in Warsaw, while commercial investments were dominated by retail parks. Additionally, the market also saw two transactions in the residential sector in Warsaw, and two hotels were sold in seaside tourist cities, says Paulina Brzeszkiewicz-Kuczyńska, Research and Data Manager at Avison Young.

The 4-day workweek is becoming an increasingly hot topic. Although in Poland it still appears to be a thing of the future, recent years have shown how quickly labour market trends are changing. AI is also broadly expected to have a significant effect on the workplace. BNP Paribas Real Estate experts are wondering, how will all of this impact the commercial real estate market.

Cushman & Wakefield has summarised the situation on the Polish retail market. The opening of 2024 is encouraging and new retail space supply in the coming months is likely to match or even surpass last year’s total. The Polish market continues to attract interest from new brands, borne out by several debuts. More arrivals are expected to follow amid improving retail sales, rising shopping centre footfall and turnover levels as inflation is weakening.

According to the latest report by Newmark Polska, 2023 was one of the best years in the market’s history. It saw the second-highest new supply (3.7 million sqm) and the third-highest take-up (5.6 million sqm) and development pipeline (2.8 million sqm). Considerable warehouse availability levels brought a long-awaited stabilization of rental rates.

Demand for offices in Poland remains high, but there is the least amount of space under construction in over a dozen years. The office real estate market is changing more and more, says Walter Herz. 

According to experts from BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland, Poland’s economic outlook remains stable but the global geopolitical situation and high interest rates across Europe continue to hamper a quick rebound in commercial property trading and large-scale transactions. Last year’s results confirmed a fall in liquidity for the CRE sector in Poland.

Experts of Cushman & Wakefield expect transactional activity on the Polish hotel market to pick up in 2024 as key performance indicators continue to improve and the pressure on investors to allocate capital builds up. Although 2023’s total investment volume on the Polish market was below that of 2019, it reached nearly €83 million - an 82% increase year-on-year. Warsaw, Vilnius and Edinburg are the only main European hotel markets that reported year-on-year growth in occupancy levels last year. At the same time, Warsaw came third for ADR growth (EUR) in 2023, with an increase of 20.1% year-on-year. 

Following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020, the Polish investment market has consistently navigated its repercussions, only to face additional challenges from the economic turbulence resulting from the war in Ukraine, rising interest rates or inflation. Despite maintaining stable investment volumes for three tough years, 2023 witnessed an inevitable slowdown, says Avison Young.

Cushman & Wakefield has summarized the situation in the Polish retail market in 2023, which saw heightened development activity, with about 450,000 sqm of new retail space delivered. The Polish retail sector continued to recover, as confirmed by the number of debuts – 29 new brands entered Poland in the last 12 months, marking the highest figure since 2017. Meanwhile, the slower price growth bolstered consumer sentiment, leading to higher retail turnover levels.

Despite significant headwinds across the global economy, the European flexible office market has remained largely resilient throughout 2023, says Workthere.pl. In 2024, the flexible office specialist expects operators to continue to seek best-in-class spaces with a greater focus on amenities and sustainability offerings.