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According to the latest report from BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland, retail development activity continues unabated. A total of 42,000 sqm was added to the Polish market in the first quarter, with this year’s new supply expected to surpass 400,000 sqm, approaching last year’s record volume.

The 2024 results signalled a return to stability in Poland’s real estate market, accompanied by a renewed sense of optimism. Total transaction volume more than doubled compared to 2023, reflecting a strong resurgence in market activity. This positive momentum is expected to continue into 2025, supported by anticipated interest rate cuts, improved liquidity, and the emergence of numerous new opportunities across all real estate segments, says Avison Young. 

According to the latest report by BNP Paribas Real Estate, Poland’s commercial property market posted impressive gains in the final quarter of 2024, with last year’s total transaction volume rising more than twofold compared with 2023. Despite geopolitical risks, the market outlook remains positive.

According to the latest report by Avison Young, after a challenging period of investment slowdown in 2023, the 2024 results signal a return to stability and a hint of optimism. Poland’s total transaction volume in 2024 more than doubled compared to 2023, reflecting a significant resurgence in market activity.

Poland’s commercial real estate market is showing strong signs of stabilisation. According to the latest report by BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland, the total investment transaction volume for January to September 2024 exceeded €2.68 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of nearly 57%, with office assets being the top-performing sector.

In Q3 2024, the Polish retail market expanded by another 116,000 sqm. With average retail vacancy rates in the largest Polish cities falling and tenants posting rising turnover levels, predictions of the imminent decline of shopping centres in Poland have proven premature, says BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland in its latest report.

In Q3 2024, we observed a clear revival in the Polish investment market. By the end of September, the transaction value reached €2.7 billion, marking an almost 60% year-on-year increase. In the last quarter, seven major portfolio transactions were completed, accounting for nearly 50% of the total investment volume, which contributed, among other things, to a recovery in the warehouse market, says Avison Young experts. 

Cushman & Wakefield has summarised the situation on the Polish retail market for the third quarter of 2024, which saw a continuation of strong development activity, with new openings dominated by retail parks. The three months leading up to September marked the first quarter in the history of the Polish market in which one retail format accounted for the entire new supply. Retail market sentiment remained robust amid a growing number of brand debuts and strong retail sales, shopping centre footfall and turnover growth.

JLL's forecast for Q3 2024 new flat sales in major markets in Poland has proven accurate, with most cities experiencing a downturn compared to Q2 2024. The number of transactions across the six main markets reached approximately 9,200 units, marking a 6.9% quarter-over-quarter decline. This slowdown was mirrored in new supply, with only 12,600 units launched for sale across these markets. JLL experts provide a comprehensive overview of the residential market conditions in Q3 2024.

Cushman & Wakefield estimates that the commercial real estate investment volume in Poland for the first half of 2024 was €1.76 billion, representing an almost 80% increase compared to the same period in 2023. The investment market is experiencing a revival in the activity of investment funds, including Polish investors, with this year’s total investment volume likely to hit €4 billion.