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Poland’s commercial real estate market is showing strong signs of stabilisation. According to the latest report by BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland, the total investment transaction volume for January to September 2024 exceeded €2.68 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of nearly 57%, with office assets being the top-performing sector.

In Q3 2024, the Polish retail market expanded by another 116,000 sqm. With average retail vacancy rates in the largest Polish cities falling and tenants posting rising turnover levels, predictions of the imminent decline of shopping centres in Poland have proven premature, says BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland in its latest report.

In Q3 2024, we observed a clear revival in the Polish investment market. By the end of September, the transaction value reached €2.7 billion, marking an almost 60% year-on-year increase. In the last quarter, seven major portfolio transactions were completed, accounting for nearly 50% of the total investment volume, which contributed, among other things, to a recovery in the warehouse market, says Avison Young experts. 

Cushman & Wakefield has summarised the situation on the Polish retail market for the third quarter of 2024, which saw a continuation of strong development activity, with new openings dominated by retail parks. The three months leading up to September marked the first quarter in the history of the Polish market in which one retail format accounted for the entire new supply. Retail market sentiment remained robust amid a growing number of brand debuts and strong retail sales, shopping centre footfall and turnover growth.

JLL's forecast for Q3 2024 new flat sales in major markets in Poland has proven accurate, with most cities experiencing a downturn compared to Q2 2024. The number of transactions across the six main markets reached approximately 9,200 units, marking a 6.9% quarter-over-quarter decline. This slowdown was mirrored in new supply, with only 12,600 units launched for sale across these markets. JLL experts provide a comprehensive overview of the residential market conditions in Q3 2024.

Cushman & Wakefield estimates that the commercial real estate investment volume in Poland for the first half of 2024 was €1.76 billion, representing an almost 80% increase compared to the same period in 2023. The investment market is experiencing a revival in the activity of investment funds, including Polish investors, with this year’s total investment volume likely to hit €4 billion.

At the end of the first half of 2024, the investment market rebounded, reaching a transaction volume of €1.8 billion, which is double the year-over-year value. In the office market, several transactions finally appeared in regional cities, and in the retail sector, the largest transaction since Q1 2022 was finalized. The warehouse sector, on the other hand, is still waiting for large transactions. Hotels are enjoying increased popularity, and in the residential segment, 5 transactions were closed in Warsaw, says Avison Young.

Cushman & Wakefield has summarised the situation on the Polish retail market in the second quarter of 2024. There were eight new retail completions with the development pipeline comprising approximately 400,000 sqm. This indicates healthy supply levels amid unwavering occupier demand and strong retail sales, shopping centre footfall and turnover figures.

We are approaching the halfway point of 2024. Before the semi-annual investment market reports are released, Avison Young is sharing the current insights on the Polish investment market. 

Poland's industrial market remains steady and adapts its growth rate to the macroeconomic conditions in both the local and European markets. The gross take-up statistics, which stood at 870,000 sqm at the end of Q1 2024, demonstrated the restricted growth of businesses in the industrial and logistics sectors. Developers supplied about 850,000 sqm between January and March 2024, which prompted Axi Immo analysts to report a slight increase in vacancy rates to 8.2%. The industrial sector has more than 32.7 million sqm of total stock. Nonetheless, a further 2.3 million sqm are still being built.