According to the latest report from BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland, retail development activity continues unabated. A total of 42,000 sqm was added to the Polish market in the first quarter, with this year’s new supply expected to surpass 400,000 sqm, approaching last year’s record volume.
In 2024, approximately 545,000 sqm of modern retail space came on stream across Poland, marking the highest annual total since 2015. With 42,000 sqm delivered during the first quarter of 2025 and approximately 400,000 sqm expected to be completed by year-end, 2025’s new supply is also projected to reach a very high level.
The three months to March 2025 saw the opening of three retail parks - M Park Mrągowo (15,000 sqm), OTO Park Żagań (6,500 sqm) and M Park Brzeziny (5,800 sqm) - along with the extension of Aniołów Park in Częstochowa. At the end of March 2025, the retail development pipeline, including reformatting projects, stood at nearly 450,000 sqm. The largest scheme under construction was Designer Outlet Kraków, which is expected to deliver 21,000 sqm upon opening in May 2025. Other projects underway included Przystanek Karkonosze (17,000 sqm) and OTO Park Siemianowice Śląskie (18,000 sqm).
The average retail vacancy rate in Poland’s largest cities stood at 3.3% at the end of the first half of 2024, down by 0.3 pp year-on-year. This indicates a gradual recovery of the retail sector. Vacancy rates fell in six of the eight largest cities, with an uptick in retail availability in Kraków and Wrocław, and no change in Szczecin.
Development activity remains robust, particularly in the segment of retail parks which effectively meet consumers’ demands for accessibility, convenience and time savings when shopping.
“Poland’s retail sector can look to the future with optimism. Despite global economic uncertainty, high inflation and the risk of tariffs, consumer affluence in Poland is rising, resulting in greater purchasing power. E-commerce is no longer a threat to brick-and-mortar retail – it now complements it” comments Fabrice Paumelle, Head of Retail, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
A key challenge facing the retail sector is the ageing stock. Nearly 70% of Poland’s retail space - approximately 11.5 million sqm - is over 10 years old. To address evolving customer expectations, retail landlords are looking for new growth directions such as facility refurbishment and expansion to include F&B and entertainment zones. A good example of this trend is Hopa Lupa in the Nowa Sukcesja shopping centre in Łódź. Covering 30,000 sqm, it features attractions such as a trampoline park and a go-kart track.
Shopping centres got off to a strong start to the year in terms of turnover and customer traffic, likely driven by deferred, post-Christmas spending and shopping ahead of the winter holidays. According to data from the Polish Council of Shopping Centres (PRCH), in January 2025, shopping centre footfall and tenant turnover rose by 0.4% and 2.6% year-on-year, respectively, indicating that Poland’s retail sector is in good health. The three standout categories were services (+6.6%), speciality items (+6.2%), and health and beauty (+6.1%).
However, data from Statistics Poland (GUS) shows a slowdown in retail sales in constant prices. In March 2025, retail sales fell by 0.3% year-on-year but increased by 14.3% compared with February 2025. This marked the second consecutive month of declining real retail sales in Poland - a clear indication that Polish consumers remain cautious.
Additionally, according to Statistics Poland, online sales accounted for 9.0% of total retail sales in March 2025. As e-commerce continues to evolve, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a key driver of change. AI-powered solutions personalise the shopping experience by displaying tailored products and personalised advertisements based on browsing or purchase history. AI also supports customer service through chatbots, fosters teamwork and optimises staff recruitment and management.
In 2024, Poland’s commercial real estate investment volume reached nearly €5 billion (approximately PLN 22 billion). Over 90% of this total came from overseas investment funds.
“This is partly due to the continued absence of REITs, which have been in the pipeline in Poland for years but successfully operate in other countries such as the Czech Republic. REITs are funds or companies that invest in real estate, allowing investors to earn profits without having to purchase properties themselves. Instead, they can buy shares in funds that lease such assets. This type of solution has already been rolled out in other countries, enabling not only large investors who can afford to buy entire properties but also smaller investors to gain exposure to the real estate market”, comments Klaudia Okoń, Senior Consultant, Business Intelligence Hub & Consultancy.
According to the National Bank of Poland (NBP), in 2024, households in Poland held over PLN 2.3 trillion in savings, with most of it sitting in bank accounts, often earning little or no interest. Therefore, the introduction of a new investment vehicle based on safe assets such as commercial real estate could be an attractive addition to the range of investment options currently available to Polish nationals.
Early 2025 has brought several major retail market developments. One of the key growth stories is Medicover, which has expanded its portfolio by acquiring 26 CityFit fitness clubs in 13 cities across Poland. Meanwhile, Join UP! Polska has entered the Polish market by opening its first store at Galeria Północna in Warsaw, marking the beginning of its international expansion.
Zalando, following strong financial results in 2024, expects to see faster growth in 2025, with revenue projected to increase by 4% to 9%. InPost has reported growing demand for its ECOreturns service. Through this initiative, the InPost Group encourages Polish consumers to donate textiles or home appliances via its parcel lockers to give a second life to unwanted but usable items.
