Poland's retail market is on a growth trend and over the next three years total sales volume will increase by an average of 2.9% annually, while the shopping park format will dominate new supply, according to a JLL analysis.
An interesting phenomenon is that e-commerce is significantly less widespread in Poland than in most EU countries. "For several years, the value of internet transactions has been a stable 9-10% of total retail sales, while in the EU it averages 14%, and in the UK as much as 28%. The forecast indicates that by 2030, e-commerce in the EU and UK will develop at a rate of 5.2% annually, significantly faster than traditional trade (3.3% annually). Poles, like Spaniards or Italians, are quite strongly attached to the traditional shopping model and the development of e-commerce in Poland is progressing noticeably slower," comments Sandra Ludwig, Head of Retail Investment EMEA at JLL.
Recent years in Poland's retail market have seen intensive development of shopping parks and convenience centres, which in 2025 represented 80% of new supply. Last year, no new shopping centres were opened in Poland, and only two large-scale projects of this format are planned. Markets in large and medium agglomerations are already close to saturation - in cities above 100,000 inhabitants there is about 1,100 sqm of retail space per thousand people.
"We predict further growth, especially in the shopping park format, which will continue to dominate new supply over the next 2-3 years. Projects under construction currently total over 500,000 sqm, and after including individual investments that may still start, we expect another record volume of new space, at a level close to 700,000 sqm delivered in 2025," comments Maciej Kotowski, Director, Research & Consultancy at JLL.
Last year brought the third highest result in history in terms of the number of transactions concluded in commercial real estate. All key market segments recorded increased transaction activity. In the retail sector, shopping parks and retail warehousing objects proved to be a real magnet for capital. What's important, last year was distinguished by an unusually broad base of capital sources, with investors from almost all major geographical regions active in the Polish market.
"This year we still expect the dominance of foreign capital, but with a systematically growing share of Polish investors," comments Agnieszka Kołat, Executive Director, Head of Retail Investment at JLL.
