Croatia's construction sector is threatened with damage this summer due to the ongoing US-Israeli-Iran conflict. While the pain has not been intense so far, the situation could worsen significantly by mid-June or even late May, according to an analysis by the Eastern European Construction Forecasting Association (EECFA).
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen 97%, disrupting the transport of crude oil, liquified natural gas, and other materials including sulfur, helium, fertiliser, and steel pellets. Up to 17% of Qatar's LNG production capacity has been destroyed or damaged.
For Croatia, this will likely alter tourism patterns as flight prices rise due to doubled jet fuel costs since February 2026. Many tourists may choose destinations closer to home, while those who do visit Croatia will probably stay shorter periods with reduced spending power. "Croatia's reputation for high costs, which higher agricultural product prices due to fertiliser shortages will worsen, will likely exacerbate the problem," the analysis notes.
The construction industry will face reduced hospitality facility construction as owners and investors wait to assess the war's economic impact. Analysts forecast effects lasting at least eighteen months. Construction material prices will likely rise, particularly for energy-intensive products like rebar and cement, while transportation costs increase across the board.
Even government construction projects may be at risk as energy and agricultural subsidies deplete cash reserves and reduced economic activity diminishes tax revenue.
