What is the size of the e-commerce marketplace in the CEE region? How much more might online sales activity grow in the coming years? What are the implications for the demand for the logistics and retail real estate arenas in the CEE-6 countries? The latest research by Colliers International assesses these key questions that will shape the marketplace for real estate space in these sectors going forward.
Colliers sees room for online and conventional channel retail to evolve side by side in the short to medium term in the CEE-6 markets. Their most conservative growth scenario sees e-commerce in CEE-6 expanding 8.8% per annum to €20 billion by 2022, in the context of a €71 billion increment in overall retail sales. The online market may well be larger even now and Colliers modelled two more scenarios of faster growth. Expansion in the conservative case would generate a requirement for 198,000 sqm of dedicated logistics/warehouse distribution space per annum in CEE in 2018-2022, with an additional 107,000 sqm or 264,000 sqm in higher growth scenarios. The supply side would be compelled to react, though Colliers does not think with „urban logistics“ as yet.
The sheer rate of increase of overall retail sales means that it is very difficult to portray that omnichannel/traditional retail sales growth will taper towards nothing. Colliers does not see the TSC retail or retail overall as especially “overbuilt” in the region. And “showrooming” is already on the scene, as part of the survival strategy.
