Poland's industrial and logistics sector remained one of the most stable segments of the commercial real estate market at the end of 2025. Despite a clear slowdown in new supply, tenant activity remained high, while key market indicators such as vacancy rates and rental levels remained stable. Axi Immo analysts point out that the market has entered a phase of equilibrium, where decisions are made more cautiously but are driven by companies' operational needs.
Total gross take-up of modern industrial space in Poland in 2025 is expected to exceed 6 million sqm, making it the third-highest result in the market's history. This figure is surpassed only by the record years of 2021-2022, when annual leasing volumes reached close to 7 million sqm. Lease renewals are gaining importance and currently account for around half of all leasing transactions.
Anna Głowacz, Head of Industrial & Logistics at Axi Immo, comments: "With logistics networks now largely optimised, tenants are increasingly choosing to remain in proven locations, focusing on cost stability and operational efficiency. Net demand, including new leases and expansions, could reach approximately 3 million sqm over the course of 2025."
On the supply side, developer activity has become more cautious. New completions in 2025 are estimated at approximately 1.8 million sqm, representing a decline compared to previous years and the lowest annual volume since 2016. New developments are primarily delivered on a pre-let basis or as build-to-suit projects, while speculative construction remains limited. Limited new supply, combined with stable take-up, is expected to keep the national vacancy rate around 8%.
At the end of 2025, prime headline rents for big-box space are expected to remain stable, ranging from approximately €3.6 to €6.0 per sqm per month, depending on location and building specification. Following the period of rental growth in 2021-2023, the market has entered a phase of rental stabilisation. Monika Rykowska, Head of Research at Axi Immo, explains: "In well-established markets, the availability of modern industrial and logistics space is gradually tightening, while higher vacancy levels are mainly observed in regions where a larger number of speculative projects were delivered in previous years."
