Savills top picks for value-add investors this year are logistics developments in undersupplied markets such as the Nordics and Spain, short-term income sectors such as flexible offices and student housing, which are likely to recover in the second half of this year, and multifamily developments in markets with rising demand for rental such as Southern and Eastern Europe.
2020 has been dominated on the commercial real estate market in Poland by the pandemic, whose impact varied from sector to sector though. The pandemic has, however, given rise to or accelerated a number of developments, some of which are likely to stay with us for longer. Real estate advisory firm Savills explores future trends in its preliminary summary of 2020 and its outlook for the next 12 months.
Operational residential investment (which comprises multifamily, student housing and senior living assets) accounted for 27% of global real estate investment in the first three quarters of 2020, up from just 16% a decade ago, according to the Savills Global Living Report 2020.
This year is likely to be the best for the Polish warehouse and industrial market, predicts Savills, with leasing activity already setting an all-time high in Q1-Q3 2020. Occupier take-up predominantly came from food retailers operating without any disruption despite restrictions imposed on other retail sectors and from e-commerce, including logistics operators serving e-retailers.
According to Savills latest research, total property investment activity in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania for Q1-Q3 2020 was €7.6 billion, the third-highest volume on record, despite the global COVID-19 pandemic. Total investment volumes by year-end are forecast to surpass €10 billion, which would be in line with the five-year average.
Iceland, Sweden and Norway show top potential for hyperscale and cloud-scale data centre investment, followed closely by Denmark and the Netherlands according to research from Savills. The CEE region is also becoming more important in strategic plans for key players, with Poland having the potential of being in its heart.
According to the latest Savills research, Prague’s office real estate market is fairly priced despite some minor outward prime yield movement during the first half of the year. This broader continent-wide outward yield movement has helped push the average yield spread between prime European offices and Eurozone government bonds to 325 basis points, more than 100 bps above the historic average.
Immofinanz has appointed Savills as sole property manager for its portfolio of seven office buildings in Prague, Czech Republic, with effect from January 2021. The total floor area of the assets is approximately 123,000 sqm.
According to Savills’ latest research, Europe will see an additional 11.6 million sqm of warehouse demand due to the manufacturing sector by the end of 2022, based on Capital Economics forecasts data.
The investment volume on the Polish commercial property market is estimated to have reached €1.05 billion in Q3 2020. According to Savills, the industrial sector accounted for approximately 70% of that total, which illustrates the current investor preference for logistics properties, especially facilities dedicated to e-commerce.
Primark has signed a lease agreement to open a store in the Silesia City Center shopping mall in Katowice, owned by ECE Polska, in 2023.
Engineering plastics producer Terez Performance Polymers has leased more than 5,000 sqm of warehousing space at 7R City Flex Rzeszów Airport. The tenant was advised for this transaction by Savills.
Qatar Airways extended a 1,700 sqm office lease at the Epsilon building of the Promenady Business Park complex in Wrocław. The building’s owner was
advised by Knight Frank.
New appointments
Tomasz Czuba joins the Management Board of JLL Poland and is appointed Head of Office Agency and Tenant Representation.
JLL Poland has appointed Tomasz Puch to the Management Board, who will also take on the role of Head of Capital Markets in Poland.
Savills has appointed Jana Etrych Goldscheidová from February 2021 as an Associate Director within the investment department. Based in the Prague office, Jana will work alongside Managing Director and Head of Investment, Stuart Jordan.
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