Taking into account the mood and current investment activity, it would seem that the recession in global markets is only just developing. A clear slowdown in real estate transactions has been visible since mid-2022. Several factors contributed to it, including the increase in interest rates, uncertainty related to the geopolitical situation, the war in Ukraine, games between the USA, Taiwan and China, as well as the instability of government and economy in Great Britain and economic problems in China, claims Michał Ćwikliński, Principal, Managing Director – Poland at Avison Young. 

Recent data from Arnold Investments show that around €152 billion was transacted on the EU real estate investment markets in the first three quarters of 2022. Year-on-year, this represents a decline of around 4% due to a strong first quarter. However, investment activity slowed down sharply in the course of the year. At roughly 39 billion, the transaction volume for the third quarter was around 39% lower than in the previous year. The main EU investment markets analyzed show a significant decline in transaction volumes both over the course of the year and in the third quarter.

Property investor Globalworth aims to reduce greenhouse gases (GHC) emissions by 40% by 2030 compared to the baseline level of 2019. 

From the warehouse developers' perspective, 2023 will be marked by very well-thought-out purchases. With the costs of financing constantly rising, construction costs changing, and investors pressing for discounts on the existing warehouse market, the land market will be the first to feel this accumulated pressure, says Bartłomiej Krzyżak, Senior Director, Investment at Avison Young.

High energy prices and rising inflation are affecting market conditions across Europe. According to economists' forecasts, the most difficult period will be the coming winter. However, Poland is in a more favourable situation despite rising inflationary pressures, as JLL experts argue in their latest report on the retail market in Poland for Q3 2022. According to Oxford Economics, Poland's GDP will grow by an average of 3.0% per year between 2022 and 2026, well above the average for the EU as a whole and the eurozone (1.8%). In addition, Poland is projected to see the greatest increase in retail spending until 2026. Oxford Economics also reports that retail sales, in real value terms, are expected to grow by 4.6% per annum until 2026, placing Poland among the top European countries.

According to Savills, investment into industrial assets in Europe has continued to reflect the strong performance of the sector’s occupational market. European investment volumes into industrial real estate assets totalled €42 billion over the first three quarters of 2022, an increase of 2% YoY and 50% above the five-year average. Investment volumes in Portugal (595%), Belgium (124%) and Italy (93%) outperformed their five-year averages by the widest margins.

How will the current macroeconomic situation affect investment activity and further development within individual sectors, from offices to industrial and logistics complexes to retail real estate? All this is shown in CBRE's latest analysis of the Czech commercial real estate market, which also provides an updated outlook for 2023.

Savills Investment Management has outlined its global outlook for real estate investment markets in 2023. While next year may prove challenging for all investors, in the context of global market turbulence, Savills IM sees select opportunities in asset classes with strong long-term fundamentals such as urban industrial and logistics, affordable housing and essential retail.

Negotiators of the Council and the European Parliament reached an agreement aimed at taxing imports based on the greenhouse gas emissions needed to make the products, which would extensively cover the imports of construction materials. 

The last two years marked steep growth for the Slovak developer Corwin. With their four new acquisitions, they have grown to be the largest developer in Ljubljana and have sold their flagship project Blumental as one of the largest transactions of the year in Bratislava. In 2022, Corwin also published its first sustainability report.