Europe's logistics real estate market is moving through a stabilisation phase. An average rental growth of 70 cents per sqm is projected for the period from Q2 2025 to Q2 2030, implying an annual growth rate of 1.9 percent. For comparison, the growth rate between Q2 2020 and Q2 2025 was 5.6 percent. These findings come from Garbe Research's latest Garbe Pyramid Map, covering prime rents and yields for 121 logistics submarkets in 25 European countries.
Tobias Kassner, Head of Research & ESG at Garbe Industrial, explained: "The rent surge of recent years cannot be sustained indefinitely. However, our forecast reveals prices continue to be stable, and locations retain their growth upside."
Markets like Munich, Stuttgart, Inner London, Manchester, Paris, Barcelona and Warsaw will see above-average rent growth in the coming years, with growth rates exceeding 2.0 percent due to their role as central logistics hubs.
During the first half of 2025, prime rents in Europe increased by an average of 6 cents to €7.42 per sqm per month. At 0.8 percent, rent growth was more moderate than in previous years and lagged behind the projected inflation rate of 2.06 percent. In 59 percent of the 121 regions examined, prime rent remained unchanged, while 36 percent registered slight increases averaging 18 cents per sqm.
Cross-European take-up generally matched recent levels, though the average vacancy rate exceeded 6.6 percent during Q1 2025. While the UK, Italy and Slovakia recorded the fastest increases in vacancies, there are signs of recovery in Germany, Spain and Poland. Kassner noted that despite slowing momentum, the market remains robust and presents opportunities for investors, especially in regions with convenient transportation access and quality locations.
