In the Warsaw office market, tenants remain active and continue to seek offices in central locations despite the decreasing volume of newly delivered space. According to the BNP Real Estate Poland latest report, the current situation is influenced by the low supply of completed projects at the beginning of this year and planned investments in the coming years. Additionally, the decline in the vacancy rate translates into limited availability of space for tenants.
Tenants are active, especially in the centre
Total tenant activity in the Warsaw office market in 2024 amounted to approximately 740,000 sqm, which was slightly lower than the figure recorded in 2023. It looks like the beginning of 2025 brought stabilization as the transaction volume in the capital between January and March reached 160,000 sqm, representing a 17% increase compared to the same period last year.
Among the most significant lease transactions in the first quarter of 2025 is the lease agreement signed by Enter Air for 9,800 sqm of space in the Bokserska Office Center building, located in the Służewiec zone, for its own needs. The second-largest was the lease by CD Projekt of 5,600 sqm of office space in the CD Projekt office building, located in the East zone. The third-largest transaction was Elanco Polska's renewal of the lease for 4,400 sqm in The Warsaw Hub B building. The next two confidential transactions were: a renewal for 4,200 sqm in the Central Tower building, and a new lease for 4,100 sqm in the Moniuszki 1a building.
According to data from the BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland report, most of the space (63%) was leased in the city's central office zones, translating to nearly 101,000 sqm of leased space in this zone.
The largest share of the gross transaction volume was attributed to new leases (48%), indicating a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Lease renewals accounted for 26%, expansion leases for 9%, and leases for own needs for 17% of the volume. These values were very close to those recorded in the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2025, the share of pre-lease agreements in the total transaction volume was 5%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points compared to the same period last year. A more noticeable increase is seen in the annual perspective – in the last four quarters, the pre-lease share reached 15%.
“In the structure of the gross transaction volume, almost 50% of the total demand was made up of new lease agreements, including pre-leases. This is an important signal for the market that companies are trying to secure the best locations in advance, aware of the existing supply gap”, emphasizes Małgorzata Fibakiewicz, Director of the Office Agency at BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
Low new supply. Future not better
The beginning of the new year saw the Warsaw office market close with a total office space supply of 6.27 million sqm, with only 5,600 sqm delivered in the first quarter of 2025 as part of a single investment – the CD Projekt office building in the East zone (CD Projekt RED). Analysts at BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland indicate that the volume of new supply is 88% lower compared to last year and 81% below the figure from the previous quarter. In the last four quarters, the new supply also stood at a low level of 61,600 sqm of new office space delivered. This is a year-on-year decrease of 44%, showing that currently very few office buildings are being added to the Warsaw’s landscape. Regarding the volume of space under construction, it is also lower – by the end of March, a 5% decrease compared to the previous year was recorded.
“As of the end of March 2025, approximately 267,000 sqm of space was under construction or reconstruction, of which more than 80% will be delivered in central zones. In the case of districts located in the center of Warsaw, the biggest challenge for developers remains the limited availability of attractive investment plots”, adds Małgorzata Fibakiewicz.
Among the largest current investments under construction, which are to be delivered in the last quarter of this year, is The Bridge building (47,000 sqm) developed by Ghelamco and the Office House (31,000 sqm) owned by Echo Investment. In turn, Strabag plans to deliver the Upper One building (35,000 sqm) in Q4 2026.
Declining vacancies, stable rental rates
According to the report, the low quarterly new supply and still limited developer activity are affecting the reduction of the office vacancy rate. The level of unleased space in Warsaw decreased to 10.5%, while in central locations it fell to 7.4% (a decrease of as much as 2.1 percentage points compared to last year), which may indicate a dynamic return of tenants to the most prestigious locations.
At the end of Q1 2025, the total supply of vacant office space in the capital amounted to 657,000 sqm, of which more than 13% was in buildings delivered over 10 years ago. As much as 20% of the vacancy volume was concentrated in the Służewiec Zone.
As for asking rental rates, they remain stable, although they may change in the future.
"Monthly rental rates in the best office buildings in Warsaw currently range from €22-27/sqm/month in the City Centre and €16-18/sqm/month in non-Central locations, with rents for the best buildings potentially exceeding €27/sqm/month. Given the limited new supply and decreasing office availability, we anticipate that rents for the best office spaces in the capital will rise”, emphasizes Wiktoria Weilandt, Associate, Office Agency at BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
