Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the sentiment on the Polish office market appears to be optimistic. Total office stock currently amounts to just over 11.3 million sqm, with Warsaw the undisputed leader, followed by Kraków. During the first six months of the year, tenant activity reached approx. 667,800 sqm, with new contracts accounting for more than half of take-up. Despite limited new supply (275,700 sqm in H1 2020), the vacancy rate increased to 7.9% (+40 bps Q/Q) in Warsaw and 10.2% (+70 bps Q/Q) in regional markets as at the end of Q2. Axi Immo summed up the first half of 2020 on the Polish office market.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused chaos across the global economy. Within the commercial real estate market, logistics has weathered this storm better than other sectors, allowing planning of new developments to gradually resume following price corrections. Changes in financing conditions for real estate development may alter the new supply structure, with a likely increase in demand for BTO (build to own) and BTS (build to suit) development projects and a decline in speculative schemes, according to advisory firm Axi Immo.

Poland’s total industrial stock at the end of Q1 2020 amounted to over 18.95 million sqm (+15% y/y). The quarter’s solid results were driven by steady tenant demand as well as stable rental rates, which despite the growing COVID-19 pandemic maintained their height in most markets. On the investment side, only in Q1 2020, the volume of transactions was comparable with the whole of 2019.

At the start of the year, investment into Polish commercial real estate was dominated by logistics. Warehouse assets worth €1.46 billion changed hands in Q1 2020, which almost equals the annual total for 2019 of €1.48 billion, according to a report by Renata Osiecka, AXI IMMO’s Managing Partner.

The COVID-19 pandemic initially disrupted supply chains with China and these are now gradually being restored.  However, the epicentre of the pandemic has shifted to Europe, which has brought challenges for producers and distributors. The logistics sector is striving to maintain liquidity. All truck drivers – regardless of nationality – are exempt from the 14-day quarantine required on entry to Poland. Similar exemptions have been introduced by other EU member states. Fast-track lanes have been created for freight trucks across the EU. It’s all in an attempt to minimalize supply chain disruptions, Axi Immo writes in its report.

KKCG Real Estate has bought five industrial BTS projects with 54,500 sqm of GLA in Poland. The transaction value was approx. €41 million. KKCG Real Estate is part of KKCG Group belonging to Czech investor Karel Komarek. AXI IMMO’s Investment department has advised buyer in the transaction.

Excellent warehouse market figures for the third quarter this year show that growth is being maintained in Poland. Demand has exceeded 3 million sqm since the beginning of the year, with 870,000 sqm leased in the third quarter alone. This result is 20% higher compared with the same period last year. An impressive 2.16 million sqm of warehouse and production space is under construction, of which 33% will be delivered on the market by the end of the year, according to a report prepared by AXI IMMO.

The Polish warehouse market remains in great shape. New year-to-year records are being broken. Gross demand amounted to 4 million sqm, of which 75% was made up of new lease agreements and expansions. This is a 32% improvement compared to 2016. High demand side results are due to the accelerating economy, including internal consumption growing month by month, and an increase in investment by companies. Developers responded quickly to high demand from tenants, resulting in 2.36 million sqm delivered on the market and 1.39 million sqm under construction at the end of 2017. The high level of absorption caused the vacancy rate decrease to 4.5%, according to the report summarising 2017 in the warehouse space market in Poland, prepared by AXI IMMO experts.

In Q1 2017 a total of 970,000 sqm was leased on the warehouse market in Poland, 42% more than in Q1 2016. Developers put into operation 475,000 sqm and over 1.4 million sqm are under construction. Results for the first quarter of 2017 allow optimistic forecasts for the coming months according to AXI IMMO’s latest report.