After the very successful years of 2021 and 2022, known as the golden period of development of the industrial market in Poland, 2023 was a period of greater challenges due to a change in the macroeconomic situation. The main reasons were high inflation, which affected the purchasing power of consumers, persistently high-interest rates, and uncertainty over the eastern border. The market grew, but at a slower pace, especially in the first half of the year, to accelerate at the end of 2023. Development activity in January-December 2023 amounted to 3.7 million sqm (-16% y/y), and as a result, the sector's total stock rose to 31.7 million sqm (+13% y/y). Another 2.8 million sqm (-16% y/y) remains under construction, about half of which is not under signed lease. Gross take-up (which does not include short-term leases) amounted to 5.6 million sqm, and despite a lower result versus 2021-2022, it was significantly higher than in the pre-pandemic period, i.e., 2018-2019, says Axi Immo. 

In 2023, on Poland’s largest eight regional office markets, developers delivered 280,000 sqm (-31% y/y). It’s bringing the sector’s total stock to 6.68 million sqm (+4% y/y). The new supply slightly increased the vacancy rate, stabilizing around 17.5% (+2.2 pp. y/y) at the end of December 2023. The largest concentration of tenant activity was observed in the largest regional office markets, i.e., Kraków, Wrocław, and the Tricity (about 70% of gross demand), where, in total, companies leased about 520,000 sqm out of 750,000 sqm of all signed contracts in 2023, says Axi Immo.

As of the end of 2023, Warsaw remains the leader in Poland’s office market, but the 61,000 sqm (-74% y/y) completed in the last 12 months was one of the lowest results in its history, says Axi Immo. The developer’s lower activity period seems to be over, as by 2026, some 150,000 sqm of new supply should be delivered each year. After a very good 2022, 2023 was not much worse. Between January and December 2023, tenants signed contracts for about 750,000 sqm, meaning the total volume of transactions was slightly 13% lower than the year before. Continued low supply in 2023 and stabilizing demand reduced the vacancy to 647,000 sqm (-11% y/y).

Poland’s industrial sector slowed in 2023, but the market hopes to rebound in 2024. After the peak of take-up and supply in the so-called COVID period falling in 2020-2022, the logistics and manufacturing market has returned in many values to those observed in 2018-2019, says Axi Immo. 

Axi Immo has presented six key trends on the Polish office market with a presentation of estimates for the sector at the end of 2023.

After nearly 16 years, the site of the unsuccessful “Żubr” housing estate project in Podłęże near Kraków is back in use and changing its purpose. The new plan for the site is an international logistics service centre. MCG EastBridge, a new company within the Maszoński Logistic Group, has already begun operations in the region, Axi Immo reports.

The Polish industrial and logistics market is transitional between economic shifts. Demand for warehouse space declined primarily in the first half of 2023, with a resurgence in Q3, resulting in aggregate demand for the first three quarters of this year of 3.75 million sqm (-25% y/y, Q1-Q3 2022). Higher investment financing costs are affecting the volume of space under construction, with developers developing 2.5 million sqm at the end of September 2023 (-36% y/y). It also impacts the volume of space delivered, which amounted to 3.12 million sqm from January to the end of September (-13% y/y Q1-Q3 2022), says Axi Immo. 

From January to the end of September 2023, the total demand for modern office space in Warsaw amounted to nearly 0.5 million sqm. Tenants often choose two contract options, i.e., they relocate to a new space or decide to renegotiate existing terms. The vacancy rate is decreasing, standing at 10.6% at the end of September 2023. On the supply side, developers delivered just over 20,000 sqm to the capital's office market in January-September 2023, indicating a supply gap period in Warsaw. Nevertheless, more than 240,000 sqm is under construction, most of which will be completed by the end of 2025, says Axi Immo. 

AXI IMMO, an advisory firm operating in the Polish commercial real estate market, and British property consultancy Carter Jonas have formed an alliance, with both firms aiming to strengthen their cross-border activities.

According to AXI Immo, more challenging economic situation and a ‘wait and see’ approach adopted by market players have been the key factors affecting the Polish industrial real estate sector in H1 2023. Gross take-up amounted to 2.24 million sq ]m (-39% y/y) between January and June. A soft patch was also visible on the supply side. Although a relatively large amount of space was added to the market in H1 2023 (2.6 million sqm, marking a 9% y/y increase) and total stock increased to 30.6 million sq \m, there was only 2.13 million sqm under construction as at the end of June 2023 – 50% less compared to a year earlier. The vacancy rate climbed to 6.7% at the end of Q2, marking a 3.3 p.p. increase on Q2 2022.