ARTICLES LABELLED WITH TAG Axi Immo

The key pandemic-related trends on the Polish office market of 2020 include the transformation of the way work we work and where we work. This prompted many occupiers to redefine their needs regarding the size of the office and the way the office is arranged. Equally important was ensuring workplace safety, also through new technological solutions. As a result of the pandemic and the lockdown measures, both development and leasing activity decreased slightly last year. Demand came mostly from new contracts and renewals. The AXI IMMO advisory firm summarises market conditions in 2020 and explores current office space trends in Poland.

Healthy occupier demand combined with high development activity have in recent years resulted in an increased appetite for investment land for industrial and logistics properties in Poland. Plot prices have risen as a result in the most attractive locations. Suitable, well-located greenfield land has become scarce, which has turned developers’ attention to brownfield plots. The COVID-19 pandemic has not had a material impact on the demand-supply balance in the land market, according to AXI IMMO.

The spread of the hybrid model of working, fast-tracked digitalization of business processes, combined with increased awareness about the importance of employee well-being are the main trends that shaped the office market in Poland in 2020. An indirect effect of the Covid-19 pandemic was an increase in lease renegotiations, as well as a rise in the amount of space available on a sublet basis. AXI IMMO presents a preliminary analysis of the key trends in the Polish office market this year.

Total modern warehouse stock in Poland exceeded 20 million sqm in Q3, with a further 1.5 million sqm currently underway despite the pandemic. Occupier activity was at the second-highest level on record in Q3 2020, reaching 1.22 million sqm (+49% y/y). Overall, 3.5 million sqm has been leased since the start of the year. Investor sentiment also remains robust, as testified by a record volume of transactions signed so far in 2020. Axi Immo presented its report on the Polish warehouse market in Q3 2020.

During the first nine months of 2020, developers completed over 530,000 sqm of office space in Poland: 231,600 in Warsaw and 305,000 sqm in eight major regional markets (Kraków, Wrocław, Tricity, Poznań, Łódź, Katowice, Lublin and Szczecin). Due to the new supply and moderate demand, more than 1.2 million sqm of office space is now available. Axi Immo presented the latest data for the Polish office market as at the end of the third quarter of 2020.

Data centres are becoming an important segment of commercial real estate and the COVID-19 pandemic turned out to be an impulse for its accelerated growth. There are currently 115 data centres in Poland, of which the highest number is located in Warsaw (35), Katowice and Kraków (13 each). Axi Immo anticipates the market to develop further, especially following the decision by IT giants Google and Microsoft to add Warsaw to their list of global cloud regions, with a pledged investment of $2 billion and $1 billion respectively over the coming years. Axi Immo experts have prepared a report on the Polish data centre market, its requirements and specific features.

Every year, the number of BREEAM and LEED-certified warehouse buildings in Poland increases. There are several reasons for the growth of sustainable development in the sector. On the one hand, educated tenants put pressure on developers. On the other hand, developers themselves increasingly adhere to the decisions of the Paris Agreement, which sets out a global action plan to prevent global warming. In the latest development schemes, companies strive to reduce the negative impact on the environment through more thoughtful development planning and by reducing the carbon footprint. Currently, certification is particularly popular in the office sector. But warehouse developers increasingly strive to meet the BREEAM or LEED construction standards too. Often long before the completion of the scheme, warehouse developers try to demonstrate that the project meets the requirements of sustainable construction and ecology by obtaining pre-certification. Indeed, the new green construction standards for new buildings are slowly becoming the norm within the warehouse sector.

The Polish warehouse market maintained its robust momentum in the first half of 2020, with a record 2.38 million sqm leased. Gross take-up in the second quarter of 2020 – during a time of strict COVID-19 lockdown measures - was as much as 50% higher compared to the same period in 2019, at 1.36 million sqm. Such good outcomes were the result of high demand for space on the back of booming e-commerce trade and numerous BTS transactions which commenced earlier in the year, according to Axi Immo.

Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the sentiment on the Polish office market appears to be optimistic. Total office stock currently amounts to just over 11.3 million sqm, with Warsaw the undisputed leader, followed by Kraków. During the first six months of the year, tenant activity reached approx. 667,800 sqm, with new contracts accounting for more than half of take-up. Despite limited new supply (275,700 sqm in H1 2020), the vacancy rate increased to 7.9% (+40 bps Q/Q) in Warsaw and 10.2% (+70 bps Q/Q) in regional markets as at the end of Q2. Axi Immo summed up the first half of 2020 on the Polish office market.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused chaos across the global economy. Within the commercial real estate market, logistics has weathered this storm better than other sectors, allowing planning of new developments to gradually resume following price corrections. Changes in financing conditions for real estate development may alter the new supply structure, with a likely increase in demand for BTO (build to own) and BTS (build to suit) development projects and a decline in speculative schemes, according to advisory firm Axi Immo.