The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised down its GDP growth forecast for Poland to 3.3 per cent for 2025, from a forecast of 3.4 per cent in February 2025. The change is based on a sharp rise in global uncertainty, the direct and indirect impact of new US tariffs and weaker external demand, particularly from Germany. The bank expects Poland’s economy to grow by 3.2 per cent in 2026.
The forecasts were published in the EBRD’s Regional Economic Prospects report. It notes that Poland’s direct trade exposure to the United States is small and that the negative impact of the increased US import tariffs will be mostly indirect, primarily through Germany and supply linkages in the automotive sector.
While the outlook for Poland’s exports is highly uncertain, domestic demand is robust, and slowing inflation and rising real household incomes are expected to sustain private consumption. Accelerated investments, particularly in infrastructure and energy, co-financed by EU funds, as well as increased spending on defence, are forecast to boost GDP growth in the short term.
Poland is not the only country to face lower growth expectations in 2025. The Bank has cut its forecasts across most economies and overall expects EBRD economies to grow by an average of 3.0 per cent this year, down from 3.2 per cent in its February 2025 forecast.
Growth is expected to pick up to 3.4 per cent in 2026, although this is also a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point from February forecasts..
