Property Forum's latest webinar assessed how Hungary's landmark April 2026 elections may reshape the country's investment landscape. Three focused presentations on the macro outlook, real estate market fundamentals, and the regulatory environment were followed by a panel discussion featuring developers, lenders, and institutional investors offering a candid view on why international capital stepped back, what has changed, and when a real re-entry could unfold.
The macro outlook: A genuine U-turn in sight
Katarzyna Rzentarzewska, Chief CEE Analyst at Erste Group Research, outlined why she sees a genuine opportunity for a U-turn in Hungary's economic trajectory. Financial markets have already begun to reprice the country, with the forint appreciating roughly 5% against the euro since the start of the year and bond spreads tightening significantly versus regional peers. The single most critical near-term catalyst, in her view, is the unlocking of EU funds — particularly RRF loans and grants totalling at least €8 billion — where Hungary has a narrow window but also a structural advantage over Poland: a constitutional majority that can push through legal reforms swiftly.
Erste forecasts GDP growth of around 1.4% this year, accelerating to 2.2% next year, supported by renewed investment and improving sentiment. Two structural challenges remain: the dual economy — a productive, export-driven foreign-owned sector alongside a weak domestic SME base — and persistent fiscal deficits well above 3% of GDP, with negative outlooks from all three major rating agencies. She also highlighted euro adoption as a powerful long-term anchor, noting that commitments such as joining the banking union could stabilise both the forint and yields over time.
