In 2017, approximately 360,000 sqm of new retail space was delivered to the Polish market, which is 15% less than in 2016. Most new shopping centres were completed in the eight largest agglomerations (over 66% of completions). Thus, at the end of 2017, the total stock of modern shopping centre space in Poland reached approximately 11.5 million sqm, according to Colliers International.
Twelve new shopping centres were completed last year. Most retail investments delivered to the market were large projects (over 40,000 sqm GLA). The largest completed projects include: Galeria Północna in Warsaw (64,000 sqm), Wroclavia (64,000 sqm), IKEA Skende Shopping in Lublin (57,500 sqm), Serenada in Kraków (42,000 sqm).
Last year, the extension trend slowed down slightly. Extensions of existing schemes constituted about 16% of new supply – a decrease of 4 p.p. compared to last year. The largest changes were related to the extension of the Galaxy shopping centre in Szczecin by 17,000 sqm.
Warsaw still on top
Warsaw is still the biggest and most competitive retail market in Poland. At the end of 2017, the total supply of modern retail space reached approximately 1.5 million sqm (47 schemes), with a density ratio of 599 sqm/1,000 inhabitants. Also, prime rental rates are the highest in the capital. 100-150 sqm of space for the fashion sector requires €115-120/sqm/month. In remaining markets, prime rents were in the range €35-42/sqm/month.
Among the eight major Polish agglomerations, the highest level of this ratio was noted in Wrocław (906 sqm/1,000 inhabitants), while among regional cities Lublin recorded the highest level (1,128 sqm/1,000 inhabitants).
The vacancy rate in Poland amounted to approximately 4% at the end of 2017. Among main agglomerations, its highest level was noted in Upper Silesia (5.8%), while the lowest was in Szczecin (2.8%). In terms of regional cities, the highest amount of available space was recorded in Radom and Częstochowa and the lowest in Toruń and Kielce.
Metres under construction
At the end of December 2017 in Poland, approximately 580,000 sqm of modern retail space remained under construction. Construction of Galeria Młociny in Warsaw (75,000 sqm), Forum in Gdańsk (62,000 sqm) and Galeria Libero in Katowice (42,000 sqm) are still in progress.
”It is estimated that new supply in 2018 will be slightly higher than last year, due to the planned completion of several large retail investments and extensions of existing shopping centres. If there are no delays, approximately 450,000 sqm GLA in shopping centres will be delivered to the market,” said Katarzyna Michnikowska, Associate Director, Research and Consultancy, Colliers International.
However, mixed-use projects are being built in the commercial market, for example ArtN, EC Powiśle, Browary Warszawskie, Bohema and Centrum Praskie Koneser, where significant parts will be intended for retail space.
”Location of retail space in revitalised historic buildings and in new mixed-use buildings is a new but fast-growing trend. Developers, at the early phase of a project, are increasingly deciding to devote part of the space to retail, services and gastronomy. This particularly concerns the centre of Warsaw,” added Katarzyna Michnikowska.
