The Otthon Start Program sparked a housing market boom in late summer and early autumn, but signs of overreaction are now visible on both buyer and seller sides.
Duna House's latest September demand index (87 points) still shows high activity but has dropped significantly from August's record high of 110 points. This doesn't signal a complete market cooldown but rather a healthy normalization of the summer euphoria. "In the first wave, panic buying, purchasing overpriced properties, and numerous bidding wars made life difficult for buyers. This normalized significantly in September, and we expect a much calmer market for buyers in October," explained Ferenc Máté, deputy CEO of Duna House.
The OSP remains a strong demand driver, and the government's clear intention to maintain the program long-term allows for a more measured market pace. New buyers now feel less pressure to make immediate decisions, which could result in more balanced negotiations and stable market movements in Q4 and early 2026.
Correction signs are also appearing on the supply side. In the new-build market, developer expectations suggest noticeable supply expansion in coming months. Legislative changes allowing 3% loans for properties that exist only on paper significantly increase predictability and planning, potentially boosting both small and large residential projects. This primarily benefits mid-category properties meeting OSP conditions.
Used housing supply expansion is also strengthened by investor sales. Duna House data shows that in Budapest, 37% of all sales involve owners selling their properties due to expected and already visible declines in rental yields. This process could moderate property price growth through supply expansion. According to Duna House, the current two-sided correction could trigger favorable processes: overpricing may moderate and the market could return to long-term sustainable, healthy dynamics.
