The European hospitality industry is bracing for shifts in transatlantic travel dynamics, as declining U.S. visitor flows threaten key tourism markets, according to Colliers’ latest EMEA Hospitality report.
The U.S., Europe’s third-largest long-haul source market, accounts for over 35% of long-haul arrivals but only around 8% of total inbound tourism spending in 2024. However, increased post-pandemic reliance on American visitors has left several cultural hubs—including Florence and Edinburgh—exposed to a potential drop in demand.
“While 2024 was a record year for U.S. travel to Europe, early indicators suggest 2025 may mark a turning point,” said Dirk Bakker, Head of Hotels EMEA at Colliers. “Operators need to rebalance and regionalise their strategies in response to emerging booking trends and changing consumer preferences.”
Key challenges identified in the report include:
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Weakened U.S. demand: Forecast growth in American arrivals to Europe has been revised down from 4% to 2.5% in 2025, with business travel showing the sharpest decline.
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City-specific risk: U.S. tourists contribute over 20% of overnight stays in some cultural cities, heightening the risk to occupancy and local spending.
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Ongoing cost pressures: Hotels continue to grapple with inflation and global supply chain disruptions, particularly impacting budget and mid-range segments.
Despite the challenges, Colliers highlights several areas of resilience:
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Short-haul travel strength: Intra-European tourism remains dominant, accounting for 78% of arrivals and 74% of total spend. Destinations such as Spain, Portugal, and Switzerland are expected to see short- and mid-haul arrivals grow by up to 8% in 2025.
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Geographically diversified portfolios: Operators like Accor with broader regional exposure are reporting minimal disruption from the U.S. trend.
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New source markets: Canada and Asia are poised to play a bigger role in Europe’s long-haul visitor mix as global travel patterns shift.
“Operators that focus on regional demand, cater to short-haul leisure travellers, and invest in resilient markets will be best placed to weather the transition,” said Damian Harrington, Head of Research for Global Capital Markets & EMEA at Colliers.
Looking ahead, the report suggests that hotel development pipelines and investment strategies may need recalibration as reliance on long-haul travel, particularly from the U.S., becomes riskier. Colliers advises stakeholders to act early to realign portfolios, pricing, and marketing approaches before the full effects are felt later in 2025.
