Romania has elected a new president in a landmark vote, with independent and pro-European candidate Nicușor Dan defeating far-right rival George Simion with 54% of the vote. The result marks a major political shift, as neither of Romania’s traditional parties advanced to the final round. In Poland, the second round of the election is to take place amidst the fiscal clarity issues.
In Romania, voter turnout reached its highest level in two decades, allowing Dan to overturn a 20-point first-round deficit in what many see as a public rejection of populist narratives.
Silviu Pop, Director, Research CEE & Romania at Colliers, comments: “Markets welcomed the result. The Romanian leu gained over 1% on Monday morning (May 19), approaching the 5 €/RON level, while the BET stock index surged by nearly 4%. Ten-year bond yields dropped by around 60 basis points, reflecting reduced investor concern over short-term political risk”.
Despite the optimism, Romania faces serious structural challenges, including the EU’s largest twin deficits, the risk of losing European funds due to stalled reforms, and a potential sovereign credit rating downgrade later in 2025. Dan's efforts to forge a pro-European governing coalition will be critical to addressing these risks.
Meanwhile, Poland also moved deeper into its presidential election cycle, holding the first round on May 18. In contrast to Romania, the Polish race has been shaped more by the economic feasibility of campaign promises than immediate market fears.
Grzegorz Sielewicz, Head of Economic & Market Insights | CEE at Colliers comments: “Rafał Trzaskowski, one of the two candidates advancing to the runoff, has proposed policies with an estimated fiscal cost of PLN 30 billion, primarily tied to initiatives like "the presumption of taxpayer innocence" and crisis-related tax settlements for businesses. His opponent, Karol Nawrocki, has outlined measures with a projected cost exceeding PLN 50 billion, the largest being a PIT exemption for families with two or more children”.
Despite relatively clearer fiscal contours, the Polish election has raised investor concerns about possible gridlock. A victory by a candidate hostile to the current government could weaken the ruling coalition and lead to prolonged legislative stalemates.
As both Romania and Poland navigate pivotal election moments, investors will be closely watching not just the outcomes but also the ability of each country’s political leadership to implement credible and sustainable economic strategies.
