Developer activity remains strong despite high retail space saturation in many Polish cities. Magdalena Sadal, Head of Retail Research & Advisory at Cresa Poland, talks about retail space saturation and the purchasing potential in Poland’s largest agglomerations.
What is the purchasing potential of the largest Polish cities?
The purchasing potential is defined as the ratio of consumer purchasing power to shopping centre space. Szczecin and the Silesian Conurbation boast a purchasing potential of approximately €16,000 per one square metre of shopping centre space. The Warsaw agglomeration is naturally the largest Polish market with nearly two million sqm of retail space and the highest purchasing potential amounting to nearly €23,000 per sqm of shopping centre space. Kraków, Łódź and Tricity have a lot lower purchasing potential ranging between €13,000-14,000 per sqm. The lowest purchasing potential of about €11,000 per sqm of shopping centre space is in Wrocław and Poznań due to recent openings of large shopping centres there.
Which Polish cities have the highest volumes of retail space per 1,000 inhabitants?
The recent openings of large-scale shopping centres pushed retail saturation rates in Wrocław and Poznań up to 854 sqm and 795 sqm per 1,000 inhabitants, respectively, the highest levels in Poland. The lowest saturation rates are in Szczecin (459), Warsaw (497) and the Silesian Conurbation (496). However, given the openings scheduled for 2018, they are likely to edge up by approximately 10% in Silesia and approximately 5% in Warsaw.
Which cities saw the largest volumes of new retail supply in 2017?
Cities with more than 400,000 inhabitants developed at the fastest pace. They have the highest purchasing power, which attracts investors. They also saw the largest number of retail completions last year. 256,000 sqm of new retail space, accounting for 60% of last year’s total supply, was delivered to Poland’s eight largest cities.
What is it like in mid-sized cities? How much retail space do the smallest towns have?
Cities with 200,000-400,000 inhabitants (528 sqm) and Poland’s eight largest cities (575 sqm) have very similar volumes of retail space per 1,000 inhabitants. Due to their size and lower purchasing power in comparison with larger cities, their growth potential is rather limited. By contrast, the smallest towns, those below 100,000 inhabitants, have the lowest space saturation rate despite large volumes of supply delivered in previous years and continued developer interest in launching new retail projects.
