A new study by Empira Group highlights a significant refinancing gap in the European commercial real estate market, creating substantial opportunities for alternative lenders.
The research points to a looming “Maturity Wall,” with approximately €130 billion of existing commercial real estate loans in Europe set to mature in 2025, and around €185 billion in 2026.
The study reveals that the loan financing gap in Europe reached approximately €86 billion in Q3 2024.
This represents 13% of all European commercial real estate loans maturing between 2025 and 2027. This gap is largely attributed to the fact that many loans were secured during a period of low interest rates and now require refinancing at significantly higher rates.
Office properties are particularly affected, with approximately €50 billion and €65 billion in loans maturing in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Residential and logistics sectors also face substantial maturity volumes in the double-digit billions.
The increasing demand for alternative financing is also driven by the challenges banks face in expanding their loan volumes due to stricter regulatory requirements and increased capital requirements.
“Although the interest rate situation has eased somewhat, traditional loan structures can no longer fully cover the needs in many sub-markets. Looking ahead, I expect targeted private debt strategies to become a central element of financing solutions,” said Lahcen Knapp, Founder and Chairman of the Board of Empira Group.
The study emphasizes that the mid-market segment, particularly loans between €30 and €75 million, presents lucrative opportunities for alternative lenders. These companies often benefit from tailored financing models that traditional banks cannot provide.
Empira Group is a key investment manager focused on real estate investments in Europe and the US, with $10 billion in assets under management.
